True or False: Political Break-up of the US Imminent?

Another Social Studies coordinator sent this out – something else in our media-rich, news-soaked environment that I missed. It is an article that often times the first thought is ‘no way!’, but after reflection on it for awhile there is some truth in the article.

Igor Panarin (image at right from the Wall Street Journal) is a Doctor of Political Sciences, and works as a Professor of the Diplomatic Academy Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Russia, and a former KGB analyist. He has authored nine books, numerous articles, and is a voice that is often heard on political discussions on Russian TV on the problems of Russian foreign policy, development of relationships between the US and Russia, and other political, foreign policy issues.

The Russian News Agency in an article released on November 24, 2008, stated:

“MOSCOW, November 24 (RIA Novosti) - A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of
citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."

On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."

That is a lot of information to digest and thoughtfully reflect on. The Wall Street Journal printed an article about this, providing a map of the divided United States.

But, this is not a first. There has been discussions on the dividing of America because of its diversified population and interests for years. Newspapers, blogs, and media reports highlight the problems, but not the hopes, of this country. This is a bandwagon that many in the world would rejoice over, and that many Americans could be enticed to.

As Russia Today states in an article:

“As early as autumn 2009 the economic crisis may lead to a civil war in the USA and then to its division into parts. Igor Panarin, doctor of political science, dean of the foreign affairs department at the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, presented this forecast ten years ago. At that time his forecasts seemed unrealistic, but now many of them are coming true.”

That same article provides additional insightful questions and a video of Professor Panarin.

Still, I can’t but think of President Obama’s inaugural speech, which dealt in a broad sweep with many of the issues brought up by Panarin. Is all of this nonsense or could Panarin be right?

Essential question: How can an article like Panarin's be analyzed and discussed objectively by the average student in a Social Studies classroom?